Probabili helps retail traders understand which prediction markets are genuinely fair — and which ones are structurally designed for them to lose.
Every market on Probabili receives a Fair Score from 0 to 10 — a composite of signals that measure how favorable conditions are for a retail trader. Higher is better.
When a market has one or more Trap Labels, it receives a ⚠️ flag. This is a quick visual signal that something structural is working against you in this market — even if the Fair Score is moderate.
Trap Labels are qualitative tags that identify specific structural problems with a market. Click any row to see a full explanation on the detail page. Here's what each one means:
Markets that resolve on speech or social media posts, not real-world outcomes.
Thin order books with wide spreads — entering and exiting costs you more than you think.
Quant firms and professional traders hold structural advantages retail can't overcome.
Vague resolution criteria give resolvers discretion that can override your prediction.
One side has structural professional advantages — specialist expertise, expensive data feeds, or quant models — that retail traders cannot realistically replicate.
A participant is known to hold material non-public information specific to this market. The most severe trap — not just an edge, a structurally broken market.
⚖️ A note on fairness
Probabili does not recommend any specific market or tell you how to trade. A low Fair Score means conditions are structurally unfavorable — not that you'll necessarily lose. A high Fair Score means conditions are more level — not that you'll win. Always do your own research.